Life during an epidemic

To re-cap: since last Friday, Mexican news has been taken over by the swine flu (virus porcino) epidemic. The World Health Organization has also taken the flu seriously, and the outbreak currently is on a level 4 pandemic alert (on a 1-6 scale).  

Since this version of the swine flu is a pig-carried flu, I've been attentive to news coverage because I work an an agricultural school here in Mexico, and we have pigs, rabbits, and sheep that the students are in regular contact with. In fact, yesterday I helped herd sheep at work and I took a visitor to see the new piglets. However, the news coverage has at times been wildly inaccurate, and the power of rumor is amazing to watch.  

The flu cases reported here in Mexico have not all been swine flu, although the news media/medical establishment does not always make that clear. On Saturday, it was reported that 2 deaths had occurred in Cuernavaca, and that about 1,300 cases had been reported. On Monday the death toll jumped from 87 to 149, and schools nation-wide (K-university) were closed down. When the woman who made the announcement came around to my classroom to tell my students, she told my students that her neighbor, who is a nurse, had told her that some 600 people had died.  

However, on Monday afternoon I received an email from an ex-pat living and working here in Cuernavaca (there are some 5,000 of us in the city) who had just come back from a meeting that included the state of Morelos health minister, and the actual swine flu cases in Morelos are 4 and the number of deaths 0. In addition, the World Health Organization has reported that the confirmed number of swine flu cases in Mexico are only 26. People are skeptical of the government's efforts to stem the spread of the flu - in a country with a deep distrust of elected officials' motives, such suspicion is common, although as I watch the peso fall, businesses lose money due to mandatory shut-downs (Mexico City is reportedly losing 57 million dollars a day in lost business), I wonder what motive government officials would have in over-hyping the flu epidemic (could somebody have family in the face mask business?) Elections are July 5th here, and we're in campaign season, so people tend to think the events (flu hype/campaigning) are linked. We'll see.  

Overall, we are currently living in a situation of caution but not irrational fear, although the face-mask thing is a little out of control. Yesterday I saw a women at the grocery store trying to shop with one hand covering her mouth and nose with her scarf. However, the streets even here in Cuernavaca are empty, and schools, movie theaters, and all museums and archaeological sites are closed. Mexico City has closed all restaurants, except for take-away food. It is eerie to ride a bus with only 4 other riders, when normally there are 30-40 people. The epidemic is a powerful case for caution in the face of fear - a lot of information reported early was incorrect. I'm glad for the preventative measures, but I wish for better, more balanced news coverage. For example, the 2007-2008 flu season in the US had a mortality rate of 9.1% at its peak - so flu can be always serious. (source: the CDC http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2007-2008/07-08summary.htm)  

I hope for school to be reinstated as planned on May 6th - we are in finals week, so the suspension has thrown a wrench into exam-taking (I'm sure students are heart-broken). Meanwhile, life continues as normal - we had a 6.0 earthquake on Monday which rumbled the walls at school, 4 sheep were stolen from the barn at school on Monday night, and it's another sunny, 75 degree day in Cuernavaca.